Portfolio Update #2
January 26, 2026
This was a very choppy week. I went into it with a large cash position (69.3%) and only two positions - UNH and PYPL. I’ve been cautious because the QQQ and SPY have shown persistent weakness, we are seeing a growing number of down weeks on higher volume than the recovery weeks. To me, this looks more like distribution than a healthy consolidation.
Coupling that technical weakness with recent geopolitical noise, specifically Trump’s behaviour regarding Greenland and Europe, I thought it was prudent to keep a large cash cushion.
Early in the week, that caution paid off as the markets dropped and the QQQ and SPY lost their 50dMAs on large volume. While we saw a recovery the next day following Trump’s TACO, the big picture hasn’t changed much. The indexes have been chopping around since October with many failed breakouts, and I’m still finding it difficult to get proper entries that stick.
Recent Moves
Trimmed Positions:
No trims
Closed Positions:
PYPL: -14.8%
Failed Entries (Stopped Out):
PLMR: -2.1%
ARRY: -2.1%
ALAB: -0.9%
AEVA: -1.7% | -1.3%
New Positions:
PYPL (re-entered, but with smaller size)
LGN
SEZL
Increased Positions:
UNH (added to winning core position as trend continues)
Current Portfolio
Cash: 59.0%
UNH: 14.3% | Avg $308.67 | +15.4%
PYPL: 10.3% | Avg $57.19 | -1.0%
LGN: 9.1% | Avg $48.01 | +3.7%
SEZL: 7.4% | Avg $68.17 | -0.8%
Added to my UNH position following last week’s breakout at $353.60. The stock has finally reclaimed all key moving averages and is showing strong RS. With the 50dSMA curling upward, I’m targeting a continuation toward $380 over the coming weeks.
Got stopped out on PYPL on the undercut of the April lows. However, I re-entered a smaller position after the quick reclaim of support and subsequent gap-up. While the price action has been sluggish for weeks, the undervaluation at these levels is becoming too significant to ignore.
P/E: 11.3
Forward P/E: 10.2
P/FCF: 9.5
PEG: ~0.6
The market is currently pricing PayPal like a dying business, which leaves limited room for further downside from a valuation perspective. While I believe we are near a floor, I’m remaining disciplined: I’ve set a stop at this week’s lows to protect against a potential slide back into the low $50s. High conviction on value, but tight leash on price.
LGN is a recent IPO showing good RS. Entered at $48 last Thursday as it consolidated at the top of its base. The week ended with a strong bullish candle, closing right at the pivot point. I plan to scale in on a high-volume breakout of the current range. Given the low liquidity and potential for volatility, I’m maintaining a strict, tight stop to manage risk.
Re-entered SEZL following a successful year-end run. The structural narrative has shifted from a downtrend to a series of higher lows and higher highs. Price is currently stabilising at the 50dSMA, which is beginning to slope upward. I’ve opened a position here during this tight consolidation with a stop at the lows of the week. I plan to add on a reclaim of the 9 and 21dEMAs.
Week Ahead
Lately, the market hasn’t been very forgiving and I’ve been getting stopped out a lot. Until I start seeing better traction, I’m going to trade smaller sizes and be more patient with my entries. The goal is to stay more disciplined, cutting the losers faster and only adding to the winners. I’m not concerned with a low high win rate, as my profitability comes from keeping losses small and letting the few outsized wins do the work.
This week I’m focusing on stocks with strong RS and clean, simple bases. I’m looking for setups that are behaving well and offering low-risk entries.
Some stocks I’m watching: MAMA, TGT, SEI, PBW, CHYM, ANAB, APLD, SITM, FN.
I’ll be sharing some of these charts during the week as they develop on my X page and Substack notes.
Trading Stats (YTD)
# Wins: 8 | # Losses: 14 | Win rate: 36.4%
Avg. Win: +9.5% | Avg. Loss: -2.8%
Max. Win: +29.2% | Max. Loss: -14.8%
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial or professional advice. I am not a licensed advisor. All investing involves risk of loss. You are solely responsible for your own research and decisions. Use of this content is at your own risk.