Portfolio Update #3
January 30, 2026
These two notes sum up my last week in the markets well:
I have been on the sidelines observing the market. I’m taking this time to build some market screeners to see if I can spot the next wave/theme and their market leaders earlier in the cycle. I will also be screening stocks in emerging markets, as that is where capital is currently flowing.
Recent Moves
Trimmed Positions:
No trims
Closed Positions:
UNH: -8.9%
PYPL: -3.8%
LGN: +5.6%
SEZL: +1.1%
Failed Entries (Stopped Out):
TOL: -0.7%
CHYM: -1.0%
NTRA: -0.4%
SEI: -2.5%
New Positions:
No new positions
Increased Positions:
No increased positions
Current Portfolio
Cash: 100.0%
Two weeks ago I wrote the following:
Yesterday, after the FOMC decision and Big Tech earnings, the market got super volatile. It really looks like institutions are just looking for exit liquidity at this point.
The volume on the red days continues to be way larger than on the green days. Look at the 1h chart on the QQQ, it’s clear that sellers are being much more aggressive than buyers. Until that volume pattern changes or we finally breakout of the range to the upside, I’ll be patient.
Week Ahead
s the US markets show more distribution, I’m noticing a clear shift toward regions like Brazil, Turkey, and Hong Kong. These markets have underperformed for years and are now breaking out of massive, multi-month bases.
Top region/country ETFs showing up on my scanners:
Peru and South Korea have had a great run this past year, but I’m most interested in the new names climbing the ranks. Brazil (EWZ), Turkey (TUR) and Hong Kong (EWH) are some of the standouts right now.
These emerging markets all have one thing in common: they are finally breaking out of multi-year bases. After years of lagging behind the US, they are starting to look interesting.
I’ll be scanning the individual holdings of these ETFs over the next few days to see if I can find some good non-US stock ideas.
Regarding the overall sectors that are working, it is clear who the leaders are. The miners and commodities trade is way too crowded right now, so I won’t be jumping on board. I missed that move, there’s no point in having FOMO.
However, I can see Renewable Energy (ICLN) and Infrastructure (IGF) gaining some momentum. Their 3-month performance isn't stretched yet, so I’ll be searching for stocks in those industries.
Until I find some good opportunities that are not extended and where I can manage risk properly, I’ll remain mostly in cash.
I will be sharing my findings on my X page and Substack notes in the next few days.
Trading Stats (YTD)
# Wins: 10 | # Losses: 20 | Win rate: 33.3%
Avg. Win: +8.2% | Avg. Loss: -2.8%
Max. Win: +29.2% | Max. Loss: -14.8%
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial or professional advice. I am not a licensed advisor. All investing involves risk of loss. You are solely responsible for your own research and decisions. Use of this content is at your own risk.
What’s been the single biggest lesson from your portfolio this year and how has it changed how you invest going forward?
By the way, I supported your work I’m building my own Substack right now, feel free to check it out too.